What Will The Internet Look Like In 10 Years?
The Internet Society engaged in a scenario planning exercise to reveal plausible courses of events that could impact the health of the Internet in the future. While obviously not intended to be a definitive overview of the landscape or all potential issues, we believe the results are interesting and, we hope, thought-provoking.
We are sharing them in the hope that they will inspire thought about possibilities for the future development of the Internet, and involvement in helping to make that happen in the best possible way.
Future Scenario Resources
Besides viewing the video scenarios below, you can:
- Download a PDF version of the scenarios
- Read about the scenario planning exercise that lead to the development of the videos you’ll find below
Common Pool Scenario
- Positive “generative” and “distributed & decentralised” properties.
- Opportunity and growth abound, with no insurmountable barriers to entry for those wishing to take part.
- Disputes and challenges are resolved through competition, as opposed to negotiation or inherited rights.
- Constant evolution and features a healthy ecosystem of interlinked network operators, developers, infrastructure providers, resource management organisations, etc.
- Organisation and operation tends to be “horizontal”, not “vertical”, so that the underlying building blocks (technologies, networks, etc.) are available to all to build upon.
- The “win” for the Internet is that it remains able to react and respond to new requirements.
- Read more about the Common Pool Scenario …
Boutique Networks Scenario
- Envisions a future in which political, regional and large enterprise interests fail to maximise the social and economic potential of a shared, global set of richly connected networks (the Internet).
- It carries the weight of self-interest brought by factions seeking to optimise control in small sectors (political and otherwise).
- It also suggests these fractionalised networks will continue to leverage the benefits of existing Internet standards and technology.
- Each proprietary provider draws as much as possible from the common pool while giving little back.
- Read more about the Boutique Networks Scenario…
Moats and Drawbridges Scenario
- Suggests the world of the Internet would be heavily centralised, dominated by a few big players with their own rules in “big-boys’ clubs.”
- Conflicts would be resolved through negotiation, not competition.
- Connections between networks would be the result of extensive negotiation and deal making.
- There would likely be strong regulation as governments seek to impose some public interest obligations and perhaps even controls on the equipment users can connect to the network.
- Much content would be proprietary and protected by strong intellectual property rights.
- Governments would control the behaviour of networks and network users through legal mechanisms and sanctions.
- Barriers to entry would be high, with little incentive to expand networks beyond the largest and richest customers or regions.
- Innovation would be slow, only occurring when it would benefit the network owners.
- All players would have close political links to their mutual benefit.
- Read more about the Moats and Drawbridges Scenario…
Porous Garden Scenario
- Sees networks staying global but with access to content and services tied to the use of specific networks and associated information appliances.
- Individual (business) viability would triumph over the economic potential of the common pool of the Internet.
- Financial incentives for content producers and software developers would mean continued innovation within the appliance-based model.
- Control over content, pricing, licensing and other concerns would be firmly in the hands of relatively few large commercial organisations.
- Proprietary, closed technologies would abound and exclusive deals with content producers and physical communications networks would oblige consumers to purchase multiple appliances and associated subscriptions to avail themselves of the full range of innovation on the network.
- Read more about the Porous Garden Scenario…
Have your say
We want to hear from you. What do you think is the biggest threat facing the future of the Internet? Share your thoughts by filling out the poll below and feel free to leave comments about this question and the above scenarios as well.
What's the biggest threat to the future of the Internet?<br /> What’s the biggest threat to the future of the Internet?<span style="font-size:9px;">survey software</span><br />
Posted: Wednesday, September 29th, 2010 by dan.graham@isoc.org
9 Responses to “What Will The Internet Look Like In 10 Years?
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Wednesday 8 June 2011
Internet Society (ISOC) Future Internet Scenarios
via isoc.org
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Comment by: google.com/profiles/br… on October 21st, 2010 at 4:33 pm
I think is not increased government control what matters but corporations control. Is specially worrying the lobby of telecommunications industry.
Also in this poll I miss the chance to mark a “None of the above” option.
Comment by: ambiguator on October 22nd, 2010 at 10:42 am
brutissim:
corporations and government are basically the same thing anyway.
Comment by: antonsantos on December 22nd, 2010 at 11:17 am
wonderful network of research and comunication but, at the same time, a Big Brother control
Comment by: Jan Willem Broekema on December 24th, 2010 at 4:34 am
@ambiguator: I would like to disagree.
Corps and Govs are very different, particularly where information is concerned, information like personal data.
Govs gain more control if they share (personal) data amongst police, education, army, tax, welfare …. Corps in general lose control if they share data, to their competitors, to government, to suppliers (cars, energy, telecomm, producers, consulting).
In short: Govs want to SHARE more personal data. Corps want to GAIN more personal data.
Comment by: aacosta@rocketmail.com on January 19th, 2011 at 3:39 pm
I’m very worried about the fact that controlling Internet in possible, I hope Internet will be always free. I don’t think corporations and goverment are basically the same thing, companies want money, goverment wants control
Comment by: google.com/accounts/o8… on February 2nd, 2011 at 5:41 pm
I’m not quite sure what the defining difference between “Boutique Networks” and “Moats and Drawbridges” … is the first about ambiguous unreachability because of scaling/addressing problems, and the second about explicit administrative lockdowns and deep content inspection?
Comment by: Kraston on February 16th, 2011 at 3:24 am
My biggest concern would be government control of the internet. The internet should remain open and free. Government control of things normally screws everything up….look at what is happening here in the United States. Smaller government is the solution.
Comment by: google.com/profiles/10… on February 28th, 2011 at 10:14 am
I visualize the future as the growing of “big bubbles” on the internet. A few companies tend to share in the majority of mouse clicks. They will continue to provide more and more comfortable services and we will depend upon them. The well known and open infrastructure of the internet may silently lose its importance and substituted by proprietary services. I see this the primary concern.
Big companies tend to become infrastructural providers and small companies the secondary providers of their services. Our data is concentrated in huge databases and becomes available to analysation by the owners of the database. That gives the opportunity of “soft control” of preferences and behaviour as well as secret contracts in the background. This is my second concern. However companies will continue to communicate their activity as being open and neutral.
Small companies, civil organizations and parties may build alternative infrastructures and liberately keep them open and available to everyone. If government and commercial pressure on these alternative (and less controllable) services would become more expressed , they might be advertised as not preferable. That kind of view is easily transmittable to the laic and to children. This is my third concern.
Comment by: G. L. B. Lyn on June 7th, 2011 at 3:13 am
I see segregated internet where high end security such as gov., corp., and banking use one section exclusively with possibly a small link connecting to a sub section in way of allowing sector to sector connectivity through a security company for public communications.
Then would come the commerce such as sales, wholesales and merchants along with most money demanding users.
And again another security such as a commerce provider like PayPal connecting the two.
Next the general public for socializing, gaming, general storage of music, videos, non-important documents etc.
In doing things in this way, it keeps hackers at bay and away from the more sensitive info, allows much more openness where needed and the upper segments are highly protected..
For extra security all communications would start from the lower level and need to pass the security levels on the way up to the top where the lower levels are verifying who is coming up the levels.