Yesterday’s YouGov poll also had the fortnightly tracker of people’s attitudes towards the cuts. It’s the first time they’d been asked since the VAT rise came into effect, and show a significant drop in public support.
Asked if the government’s cuts will be good or bad for the economy only 38% now think they will be good, compared to 47% who think they will be bad. In comparison between October and December last year it was roughly even between people thinking the cuts would be good and those thinking they would be bad.
On whether the cuts are being done fairly or unfairly, 57% now think the cuts are being done unfairly, again the highest we’ve shown so fair. Finally 72% of people now think the cuts are having an impact on their own lives, up sharply from 62% in December.
Note that 52% of people still think the cuts are necessary, 35% unnecessary. So while people increasingly don’t like the cuts and think they are unfair… a slight majority think they are necessary.
UPDATE: On unconnected matters, MP Eric Illsley has pleaded guilty to false accounting. If he gets a sentence of over 12 months (or chooses to fall on his sword) he will be disqualified from the Commons and we’ll have a new by-election in Barnsley Central (we should also have a by-election in Belfast West at some point once Gerry Adams resign to contest the Irish general election).
--> 77 Responses to “Falling public support for cuts”
Ann in Wales, There is no justice is there?
@James Baillie – “… my first GE vote… heading left or to a Grn/Lab candidate because I can’t stomach another neoliberal coalition.”
Brilliant.
Ed Miliband’s “New Generation” conference speech left some a bit non-plussed, at the time thinking him too young to lead the party. I guess forty is getting on a bit though.
@ Amber
If a shadow cabinet re-shuffle does occur in 2 years, what could throw a spanner in the works is that, purportedly, Alistair Darling hasn’t completely ruled himself out of not making a return.
@ Mike.
It’s interesting to hear what you say – that Peter Kellner still gives the Lib Dems a chance in OE & S. (Has anyone got a link to his article?).
I think he may be right – although I maintain that it’s still Labour’s to lose.
Not having been involved in the campaign on the ground, I have no way of knowing whether there is real momentum behind the Lib Dem campaign.
There will surely be SOME momentum since the weekend polls – if only of a tactical nature – but I reckon they still need to win back some of the support they have lost to Labour in order to pull it off.
Momentum is really everything: the last by-election I was involved in (Southall – which is where I live) could easily have resulted in a Lib Dem victory. The Lib Dems lost it at the point at which five Labour councillors defected to the Tories – because from then on it was unclear who non-Labour voters should rally behind (and the Tories were never going to win in Ealing Southall).
Plus, in Southall, there were no opinion polls – so there was nothing the Lib Dems could use to tactically collapse the Tory vote and hence gain the momentum they needed in such a short time. (Even if there had been opinion polls, it is unclear whether they would have put the Lib Dems or the Tories in second place, as only 3% separated them in the final result).
Back to OE & S, if the Lib Dems do not pull it off they will still have done enough to save Nick Clegg’s skin – for the simple reason that they are bound to exceed the level of expectation that has been set by the Populus and ICM constituency polls.
The only politician whose neck is really on the line on Thursday night is Ed Miliband – for his party is expected to win. Although he will have had little to do with the result, he is nonetheless a ready made scapegoat should Labour not prevail.
Billy
An Alastair comeback would please me.Colin: I think one can separate the left-ism from the liberalism though. I believe that had Clegg taken the coalition to a sufficiently liberal position the economics would not have mattered so much in terms of VI; if the Liberals had delivered on the immigration amnesty, were clearly trying to find a multilateral replacement for Trident, and were going for the option of AV+ or STV on the referendum (as examples, there are other things in this bracket), those things (whilst not necessarily implying a commitment to leftwing economics at all) would have greatly helped keep Liberals on-side regardless of what they thought of the cuts. These are the beliefs Clegg failed to realise that he couldn’t afford to sell out on and did, I suspect.
Howard: True, but I suspect the Blairite vote will matter slightly less now; for the first time since before yours truly walked the earth, Labour can potentially hold claim to most of the left of centre vote in the UK. If they can take it, they shouldn’t necessarily need to lean in a rightwing direction to beat the Conservatives, who have been weakened since the last few straight-up fights of the pre-Thatcher era by the loss of much of Scotland and the collapse of their Irish UUP props (whereas the Nats will usually back Labour ideologically when it comes to the crunch).
Billy Bob: Well, Pitt the Younger was closer to my age than Miliband’s when he got the top job… and with many of the government’s measures on things like further education, I’m actually going to be affected by them. And thus a “liberal by temprament and by upbringing” doesn’t know which way to vote. Barely matters in what’s more or less a Con pocket borough, I suppose.
@Robin
While there will be some mitigation because of reduced expectations… There is still going to be damage to the Lib Dems from losing.
After all, the polling so far is “Theory” on how people will vote for Westminster seats. Thursday will be actual voting, and it may even come as a shock to the Lib Dem die-hards who make up the last >10%.
The only good news the Lib Dems can take away from this is a win. Anything else will just be varying shades of bad news.
@Robin Hood
OK, so what is your prediction of the O &S result? Mine is that Lab will win with a maj of 5000 although I recognise wishful thinking has played a part!Valerie
You are being objective as far as the bookies are concerned. It is just our natural diffidence which makes us think it can’t be true.@Barney C
I should put my money where my mouth is and have a punt! LOL
Latest typical odds from oddschecker:
Lab 1/50 and shortening
LD 10/1 and lengthening
Tories 40/1
Labour is heading for a thumping win. I don’t think any bookmaker (let alone all) would offer anything as generous as 10/1 just a day or so before the poll if the LD had any chance of winning.
I go for Labour by at least 10%.
Valerie,
I made my prediction yesterday…45% Turnout , Labour win by 3000
LibDems on 7% wow!
Valerie
You would have to bet early on this one, though my prediction hasn’t changed. BTW, I think Woolas would have won by a landslide. Funny thing, people
Roll on Scottish and Welsh elections
Another BTW it struck me that if G Adams did stand down, T Blair would make some SDLP candidate. I suspect he would have liked to stand for the only EU socialist party which opposes abortion. That should get one of our missing colleagues at least wanting to postYouGov
C40, L41, LD7
Gov Approval -18gap to labour only 1% with yougov labour -2% lib dems -1% dose this mean the barnsley central effect is kicking in???
Robin Hood
We need to get over the spin. The opinion polls were good for Labour and the national state almost makes it look like a shoo-in but I think this is PR and Kellner has it right.
Labour could get a 10% swing from the Coalition and have more votes that they did in the 97 landslide but still lose due to the fact there are so many potential Coalition voters (57% voted for the Coalition parties).
It may just come down to how the Coalition polling splits. If the Tories collapse it could still go LD without Labour having done much wrong.
There is clearly some migration to Labour from the LD but the fact this is heartland LD country (more ‘core’ voters), Woolas, Chaytor and now the guy from Barnsley, no real supportive media, 103 votes difference in May, may mean that this is less apparent than nationally
Labour should win but it is not definite – a Labour victory is a very good vote for them, especially if they can beat the combined Tory/LD – and should be understood as such.
For Clegg, if he cannot storm OE and S now, the question is what will happen in any other by-election and the local elections. It seems bleaker for him than Milliband
@Ian
Interesting. I wonder if this reflects the headline coverage recently on Chayter and Illsey.
the local elections will be a hard one to predict as ipsos mori showed at the end of last month the tories are doing well in the midlands and parts of yorkshire but badly in the south and south east, london the north and scotland but up a little north of the border, the lib dem vote speaks for its self rubbish, the labour vote is only that a snapshot of public opinion and nothing is sure untill the locals and devolved govenment elections have been held and that won’t be for 3.5 months yet.
James Baillie
Perhaps the Con recovery in YG tonight is those New Labs I was talking about!Seriously nothing much going on.
Stuart,
It is simply nothing more that normal variation found from sample to sample.
If you look at YouGov data using a Control Chart, you can see this is normal variation
RAF
“Labour is heading for a thumping win. I don’t think any bookmaker (let alone all) would offer anything as generous as 10/1 just a day or so before the poll if the LD had any chance of winning.”
What a strange comment. – bookmaker odds close to a result are often way out. Just check the odds for Glasgow East by election a couple of days before
24 July 2008. The odds are largely determined by punters decisions and these are heavily influenced by polls. If the polls are overtaken by new events or factors such as differential turnout the bookies odds are not a reliable guide.@Garry K
I predict turnout at 43%
@ Garry K
At least we’re sticking our necks out!
Amazing. I keep waiting for a sign that the LDs might have bottomed out, but they keep on going. That’s two polls in a week putting them at 7, which is no longer an outlier and is now clearly within the bottom end of moe. How long before we see a 6?
Meanwhile, 40 is now the top edge for the Tories, they have pushed above it just once in nearly a month, but before that they virtually never dropped below. We’re now well below the crossover, and the question now is how fast the Con support will decline. I’ll be surprised if there isn’t a 10 point lead for Labour by Easter.
Control orders to be renamed surveillance orders?
Some differences, but significant similarities. Also draft legislation in place to re-introduce the old control orders at short notice if necessary (according to BBC 24).
i do not think this is a sure labour win at all.They are
calling on all activists to help in O ld and Sad because the lib dems are flooding the place with their supporters.This
going to be a fight to the death.Leave a Reply
Tuesday, 11 January 2011
UK Polling Report
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